
By mid-July, Indonesia had already experienced a 167% year-on-year increase in fire hotspots nationwide.
Indonesia’s dry season was already forecast to run longer and drier than average this year, with BMKG projecting its peak across July–September. On top of that, El Niño strengthened through the season and is now sitting at strong intensity.
El Niño dries out land and vegetation, making any fire that starts easier to ignite and harder to contain.
Land condition decides how far it spreads once it starts. Degraded and drained peatland is far more flammable than intact forest, and burns differently; smoldering underground as well as across the surface, which makes it harder to fully extinguish and is why peat fires tend to produce the most persistent haze. Much of this year’s hotspot activity is concentrated in exactly these landscapes: land that has already been cleared or drained at some point, sitting drier than usual heading into an El Niño year.
There’s also a repetition problem; a lot of this year’s fires are happening on land that has burned before. That’s a pattern about geography and land management over time.
Put together: a longer, El Niño-primed dry season set the baseline; already-degraded, often-repeat-burn land excarberates the fire.
The scale of that overlap shows up in the historical comparison: cumulative hotspot counts this year have already accelerated faster than the same period in 2015 and 2019, two of the years Indonesia experienced its largest forest and land fires. Six provinces are currently on alert for forest and land fires: Riau, Jambi, South Sumatra, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, and South Kalimantan.
In Bantul, residents reported hillside land fires three separate times to PetaBencana.id in July — in Wukirsari on the 26th, in Selopamioro on the 26th, and in Mutihan, Srimartani on the 22nd — three different locations in the same regency, each burning independently within a three-week span. Further out, fires were reported in Bengkalis (Riau), Seram Bagian Timur (Maluku), Sulawesi Barat, Aceh Barat, and Majalengka. Haze from land fires was reported drifting over Sampit in Central Kalimantan, still lingering days after the fires that caused it.
From inside a community, this is what an elevated fire season looks like from inside a community, well before it becomes a headline event: recurring, spread across islands, and toxic haze affecting health, school, and transport.
What comes next
BMKG’s own forecast puts the actual peak of this year’s dry season in August, not July, with nearly half of Indonesia’s climate zones are expected to hit peak dry conditions next month. July was the lead-up.
A few things worth doing now, before that peak arrives:
- If you’re in a fire-prone area, plan for water access now. Know your nearest water source (a river, well, etc). Clearing dry leaves and brush around your home helps too, and doesn’t depend on water at all.
- If you’re in a haze-affected area, plan for air quality, particularly if anyone in your household has respiratory sensitivities. Masks on hand, especially for kids and older family members, and a plan for what happens if schools do suspend classes.
- Report early. Early reporting can stop the spread of destructive fires. A hotspot caught in its first hour is a very different problem than one caught after it’s crossed into forest.
If you see smoke or fire, report it on PetaBencana,id. Early reports are what let response teams act before a fire spreads.























